The Slanker Report

Metals


Gold   |   Copper

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Copper
October 2000

Copper Leaves the Gate!
About every six or seven years the copper price takes off and soars.  The copper cycle is not clear-cut.  Like most cycles it happens regularly, but not with precision.  The prior peaks were:
December 1916
March 1923
March  1929
February 1937
January 1940
March 1947
October 1950
January 1956
December 1959
February 1968
January 1970
June 1974
March 1980
December 1988
July 1995
For the years 1916 to 1970 I picked the months by interpellating old charts.  Those months could be off by a month.  Interestingly, copper usually makes its high for the year during the winter.  Itís a rare copper bull market that lasts longer than 24 months.  Many have lasted only 12 months.  When copper moves, it MOVES.


Breakout Is Bullish Signal
The last cyclical low for copper was in May 1999.  The copper price has been in an uptrend since then.  Over the course of the past 36 months copper has traced out a huge inverse head and shoulders reversal formation.  On August 30, 2000 copper broke the long-term downtrend line and moved up through the neckline of the head and shoulders formation.  This is a very bullish signal.  Since then copper moved higher only to settle back down to the former resistance area to test the breakout.  This pullback maneuver is a normal move that strengthens the resolve of the bulls.  This is one of the best charts weíll ever see pointing to higher prices ahead.
Of course, nothing is guaranteed in this day and age, but the bullish signs in the copper chart must not be ignored.  The prospective high, which could range from $1.35 to $1.55, could be any time within the next 12 months.  From todayís $0.90 level, thatís a large percentage move in a very short period.



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